Bain & Company projects US holiday sales will grow 4.5% year over year and cross $1 trillion for the first time, with online sales growing nearly three and a half times faster than in-store. The bigger story is a hiring window that's already tighter than most retailers think.
US retail sales during November and December are forecast to grow 4.5% year over year and top $1 trillion for the first time, according to a new report from Bain & Company based on a survey of over 1,100 consumers. It's a milestone number, but inflation is doing a lot of the work behind it: Bain says inflation will account for more than half of the nominal increase, and Aaron Cheris, the firm's global head of retail practice, has been direct about what that means, retailers will reach the trillion-dollar mark, but underlying pressures will still weigh on the bottom line.
The number worth paying more attention to sits just underneath the headline. In-store sales are expected to grow 2.5%, while online sales are projected to rise 9%, nearly three and a half times faster. Add in gas prices, tariffs, growing credit card debt, geopolitical uncertainty, and a challenging labor market, all factors Bain flags as headwinds on consumer spending power, and the picture is a holiday season with real volume behind it, arriving on top of a workforce and channel mix that most retail teams haven't fully re-staffed for.
A $1 trillion season sounds like a rising tide, but Bain's data shows the growth is uneven by category. Home furnishings, electronics, appliances, and food and beverage are expected to stay roughly flat, while general merchandise, clothing, accessories, and ecommerce are expected to deliver actual price and unit growth.
| What Bain's Data Shows | What It Means for Staffing |
|---|---|
| Online sales growing 9% vs. 2.5% in-store | Fulfillment, site operations, and digital merchandising need to absorb most of the season's real volume growth, not just support it |
| 40% of shoppers splitting evenly between online and in-store | Omnichannel handoffs (BOPIS, ship-from-store, buy-online-return-in-store) carry more of the season than either channel alone |
| General merchandise, clothing, and accessories seeing price and unit growth | Pricing and promotion strategy needs an owner who can hold margin without suppressing the demand that's actually there |
| 24% of shoppers starting their journey on an AI platform | Product data and site infrastructure need to be structured for AI-driven discovery, not just traditional search and browse |
Retailers are largely walking into this season well-stocked. National Retail Federation Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold noted in August that retailers brought in merchandise earlier than usual this year, responding to tariff changes and supply chain disruption tied to the conflict in Iran. Inventory being in place solves one problem. It doesn't solve the staffing question of who's actually managing the channel mix, the pricing calls, and the AI-driven discovery layer once that inventory has to move.
The detail most retail teams are underestimating is this one: nearly a fourth (24%) of consumers plan to start their holiday shopping journey using AI platforms like Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude, up from 17% just last year. That's a seven-point jump in twelve months, and it's happening on top of a gap we've written about before in our piece on Target's AI-driven personalization push: roughly 89% of retailers have adopted AI in some form, while only about 7% have actually scaled it into daily operations.
A rising share of holiday shoppers starting on an AI platform turns the AI adoption-versus-scaling gap into a revenue problem this quarter, not a roadmap item for next year.
Cheris put the retailer's task plainly: win the season by striking the right balance on price and promotions, and by putting new AI capabilities to work on the customer experience before competitors do. That's a hiring statement as much as a strategy one. Someone specific has to own making sure product data, catalog structure, and site infrastructure are actually legible to an AI shopping assistant, not just a human browsing a category page.
Specialized commerce hires routinely take five to twelve weeks to fill, a range we broke down by practice area in how long it should take to fill a commerce role in 2026. A search that starts today, in early September, is already tight against a role that needs to be fully ramped before Black Friday. A search that starts in October is, in practice, a bet that the new hire's first real weeks on the job will happen during the season's highest-volume stretch.
Three roles carry the most risk if that timeline slips:
A Director of Pricing and Revenue Management, an Omnichannel Fulfillment Manager, and an AI-focused data or personalization hire are the three roles most likely to be understaffed heading into a $1 trillion season, and the three hardest to fill quickly once peak volume has already arrived.
The pricing role has to do exactly what Cheris described: hold margin steady against inflation while still competing on the price and promotion cadence shoppers expect, a balancing act we cover in hiring a Director of Pricing and Revenue Management. The fulfillment role has to keep BOPIS, ship-from-store, and buy-online-return-in-store working under real volume rather than as a marketing promise, which is the exact gap we outlined in how to hire an Omnichannel Fulfillment Manager. And the AI-focused hire has to make sure the retailer shows up correctly when a shopper starts their search on an AI platform instead of a search engine, the same scaling gap we identified in Target's approach to seasonal AI testing.
None of this requires a retailer to match Amazon's or Target's technology budget. It requires naming an owner for each of these three functions before the season's volume makes the absence of an owner obvious. A trillion-dollar season with online growth outpacing in-store by more than three to one, and a quarter of shoppers starting on an AI platform, isn't a reason to wait for Q1 planning. It's a reason to close open reqs now, while there's still enough runway left to onboard someone before the volume hits.
Bain's headline number is a milestone for the industry. The more useful number for a retail hiring manager is the gap between now and mid-November, and how many of the roles above are still open when it closes.
Bain & Company forecasts US retail sales during November and December will grow 4.5% year over year and top $1 trillion for the first time, based on a survey of over 1,100 consumers. Inflation is expected to account for more than half of that nominal increase. Last year, Bain forecast a 4% increase that ended up exceeding $975 billion, so this year's growth is expected to slightly outpace the prior year's.
Bain's report projects online holiday sales will rise 9% year over year, compared to 2.5% growth for in-store sales, roughly three and a half times the pace. About 40% of shoppers plan to split their holiday shopping equally between online and in-store, while 24% expect to shop mostly online and 13% expect to shop mostly in-store, meaning the majority of holiday shoppers will touch a retailer's digital experience regardless of where they ultimately complete the purchase.
Bain found that nearly a fourth (24%) of consumers plan to start their holiday shopping journey using AI platforms like Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude, up from 17% last year. That's a meaningful jump in a single year, and it lands on top of a gap we've written about before: roughly 89% of retailers have adopted AI in some form, while only about 7% have actually scaled it into how the business runs. A rising share of holiday shoppers starting on an AI platform makes that scaling gap a revenue problem, not just a technology one, since a retailer whose product data and site infrastructure aren't structured for AI-driven discovery risks losing the shopper before they ever reach the site.
Three roles tend to be the ones retailers scramble for once peak season is already underway: a Director of Pricing and Revenue Management who can balance promotions against inflation-driven price sensitivity, an Omnichannel Fulfillment Manager who can keep BOPIS, ship-from-store, and buy-online-return-in-store running under real volume, and a data science or personalization hire who can make sure the retailer's product data and site experience are structured for AI-driven shopping discovery. All three take longer to fill than most retailers budget for.
It depends heavily on the role and level, but specialized commerce hires routinely take five to twelve weeks to fill, and that's before accounting for notice periods and onboarding ramp time. Starting a search in September for a role that needs to be productive by mid-November leaves little room for a false start. Retailers who wait until October to staff up for peak season are often filling the role in December, after the volume it was meant to help manage has already arrived.