Deloitte's 2026 holiday forecast shows accelerating growth and rising disposable income. It also shows shoppers at every income level switching brands and retailers to stretch their budgets. Both things are true at once, and most retail teams are staffed for only the first one.
Deloitte released its annual holiday retail forecast on September 10, and the headline number is a good one: US holiday retail sales are expected to grow between 4% and 4.8% during the November 2026 to January 2027 period, up from 4.1% growth over the same stretch a year earlier. That puts total holiday sales at $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion, up from $1.63 trillion, with disposable personal income, Deloitte's preferred bellwether for retail and ecommerce demand, projected to rise 4.5% to 5.2% during the season.
Read past the top line, though, and Deloitte's own commentary complicates the good news. Natalie Martini, vice chair at Deloitte, said shoppers at every income level are looking for deals, switching brands, and shopping across retailers to stretch their budgets, even as their disposable income grows. Consumers are being deliberate about how they spend rather than pulling back, Martini noted, cutting corners on fuel and household costs while still selectively spending on treats and seasonal splurges.
Those two findings sitting side by side, accelerating sales and accelerating brand-switching, are more useful to a retail hiring manager than either one on its own. A growth forecast alone says demand is there. A brand-switching finding says that demand is up for grabs, and that whichever retailer executes best on price, promotion, and loyalty economics this season captures a disproportionate share of it.
| What Deloitte's Report Shows | What It Means for Staffing |
|---|---|
| Holiday sales growth accelerating to 4%-4.8%, from 4.1% last year | Real incremental demand is there, but it isn't allocated to any retailer by default |
| Ecommerce sales growing 7.5%-8.4%, nearly double the overall rate | Omnichannel and digital operations teams absorb an outsized share of the season's real volume growth |
| Disposable income up 4.5%-5.2%, yet shoppers still switching brands and retailers | Pricing and loyalty strategy need an owner who can model genuine price sensitivity, not just discount depth |
| Shoppers spending selectively on "treats" while cutting other costs | Category and merchandising teams need to know which parts of the assortment are discretionary splurges versus price-sensitive staples |
We wrote recently about what Petco's loyalty relaunch actually cost the company, millions in the mid-single digits, once redemption volumes exceeded what the program had been modeled for. That was a costly lesson in building loyalty economics for how shoppers actually behave rather than how a spreadsheet assumed they would. Deloitte's report raises the stakes on that exact lesson going into this holiday season specifically: a loyalty or pricing model that isn't built for heavier deal-seeking and cross-retailer comparison is more likely to get tested, and to break, during the highest-volume stretch of the year.
Rising income and rising brand-switching aren't a contradiction. They're a signal that shoppers have more to spend and less patience for retailers who make them overpay for it. That's a pricing and loyalty staffing question, not just a promotions calendar question.
This is the same gap we flagged in hiring a Director of Pricing and Revenue Management: someone has to hold margin steady against genuinely price-sensitive shoppers without either overspending on promotions or losing the sale to a retailer who priced more precisely. Deloitte's data confirms that the shoppers this role has to model aren't a hypothetical, they're the majority of holiday shoppers this year, at every income level.
Buried in Deloitte's numbers is a second gap worth staffing for directly: ecommerce sales are projected to grow 7.5% to 8.4% this season, reaching $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion, against 4% to 4.8% growth for retail overall. Online holiday sales are set to grow at nearly double the rate of the total market for at least the second year in a row.
That imbalance lands directly on the team responsible for BOPIS, ship-from-store, and buy-online-return-in-store working under real volume, the exact function we cover in how to hire an Omnichannel Fulfillment Manager. A retailer that hits its overall sales target while its digital operations team is understaffed for the disproportionate share of growth landing there isn't actually prepared for the season Deloitte is describing.
Deloitte's forecast is genuinely good news for the industry. The nuance underneath it, brand-switching at every income level, ecommerce outgrowing overall retail, deliberate rather than reflexive spending, is the more useful signal for deciding where to staff up before the season arrives. A pricing and revenue management lead who can hold margin against real price sensitivity, a loyalty and retention marketing owner who's stress-tested program economics before launch rather than after a costly correction, and an omnichannel fulfillment lead built for outsized digital growth are the three functions this year's forecast argues for most directly.
The headline number says the pie is getting bigger. Martini's comments say the pie isn't being divided the way it was last year. Retailers who staff for both parts of that story are the ones positioned to capture the growth instead of watching a competitor win it on price.
Deloitte projects US holiday retail sales will grow between 4% and 4.8% during the November 2026 to January 2027 period, up from 4.1% growth in the same period a year earlier. That translates to total holiday sales of $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion, up from $1.63 trillion, excluding gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers. Deloitte also forecasts disposable personal income, its preferred bellwether for retail and ecommerce demand, to rise 4.5% to 5.2% during the season.
Deloitte forecasts ecommerce sales will increase between 7.5% and 8.4% this holiday season, reaching $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion, compared with 4% to 4.8% growth for retail overall. Online sales have outpaced total retail growth for years as more of the incremental holiday dollar moves to digital channels, a gap that puts more pressure on the omnichannel and digital operations teams responsible for capturing it.
Deloitte vice chair Natalie Martini said shoppers at every income level are looking for deals, switching brands, and shopping across retailers to stretch their budgets, even as disposable personal income is projected to rise. Consumers are being deliberate about how they spend rather than pulling back entirely, cutting corners on fuel and household costs while still selectively spending on treats and seasonal splurges. Rising income doesn't eliminate price sensitivity, it just changes where shoppers choose to spend freely versus where they keep comparison shopping.
Petco's recent loyalty relaunch cost the company millions when redemption volumes exceeded what the program was modeled for, a costly reminder that loyalty and pricing infrastructure has to be built to hold up under real shopper behavior, not assumptions. Deloitte's finding that shoppers are actively switching brands and retailers for value this season raises the stakes on that same infrastructure: a loyalty or pricing model that isn't built for heavier deal-seeking and cross-retailer comparison is more likely to be tested, and to break, during exactly the season Deloitte is forecasting stronger growth for.
Three functions carry more weight given Deloitte's findings: a Director of Pricing and Revenue Management who can model promotions against genuinely price-sensitive, brand-switching shoppers, a loyalty and retention marketing lead who can stress-test program economics before launch rather than after a costly correction, and an Omnichannel Fulfillment Manager who can handle the disproportionate share of growth landing in ecommerce specifically.