The headline number is another record. The more useful detail is what is in the cart: everyday basics, bought earlier, mostly on a phone, with AI increasingly in the path to purchase. That mix rewards planning, site, and fulfillment talent more than it rewards a bigger gift guide.
Adobe is forecasting $275.1 billion in U.S. online holiday spending for November 1 through December 31, up 6.7% from last year, Retail Dive reports. Cyber Week is projected at $47.5 billion, with Black Friday at $12.9 billion and Cyber Monday topping $15 billion, the biggest single online day of the year.
We have already covered the size of the season in Holiday Retail Sales Will Cross $1 Trillion for the First Time and the consumer mindset in Deloitte's holiday forecast. This post is about something narrower and more actionable: what the Adobe data says about the work your team has to do between now and January, and which roles are missing when it does not get done.
Four patterns in the forecast matter for staffing. Each one lands on a different function.
| What the Data Shows | The Hiring Read |
|---|---|
| Essentials surge during sales events: Cyber Week demand for clothing basics is projected up 210% versus September, personal hygiene up 150%, baby products up 113%, pet products up 93% | Demand is concentrated in replenishable, high-turn items. That puts pressure on merchandise planning and in-stock performance, not just on promotional creative |
| October is projected at $95.8 billion (up 8%), including roughly $10 billion during Prime Big Deal Days | The peak now starts before Halloween. Promotion and inventory decisions have to be made earlier, and pricing and planning owners need to be in seat well before November |
| Mobile is 57.4% of holiday spend and 63% of Thanksgiving Day sales; buy now, pay later is forecast at $21.3 billion, with 82% of it on mobile | Mobile checkout, payment options, and site speed are revenue levers on the busiest days. Site operations and digital product ownership carry real weight |
| AI-driven traffic to retail sites is up 130%; shoppers using AI assistance are reported as more confident and less likely to return what they buy | Product data, content quality, and discoverability in AI tools are now commercial priorities, with measurable effects on conversion and returns |
A gift-heavy season rewards creative and merchandising instinct. An essentials-heavy season rewards forecasting. When shoppers use a sale to stock up on diapers, pet food, cleaning supplies, and basics, the retailer that wins is the one that has the right quantity in the right node at the right price, and stays in stock through the promotion. Adobe also projects grocery, toys, and cosmetics each growing roughly 10% over the season, which means several fast-moving categories are competing for the same fulfillment capacity.
That makes the merchandise planner and the demand forecaster some of the most consequential hires in a peak quarter, and also some of the most commonly under-resourced. We broke down what to look for in How to Hire a Merchandise Planner for Omnichannel Retail. The short version: candidates who have planned across store and online inventory pools, not one or the other, are the ones who adapt when channel mix shifts mid-season.
When baskets are made of essentials, the sale does not fail on creative. It fails on stock, price, and speed to the door.
Retail Dive notes that Prime Big Deal Days has changed the shape of the holiday season, and Adobe's October projection of $95.8 billion supports the point. For a brand, this compresses the calendar. Promotional commitments, vendor funding conversations, and inventory positions that used to be locked in for Black Friday now need to be settled for early October, then revisited for the main event. Any retailer that planned a November start is already playing catch-up.
This is where pricing and promotions leadership earns its place. Someone has to decide how deep to discount in October without training shoppers to wait, and how to hold margin when a competitor's event resets expectations. We covered that role in Hiring a Director of Pricing and Revenue Management. Brands that sell through marketplaces face a version of the same problem, where the event calendar is set by someone else and inventory has to be committed on their schedule. A strong marketplace manager turns that from a scramble into a plan.
With mobile at 57.4% of holiday spend and most buy now, pay later volume also on phones, the checkout experience on a small screen is where a large share of the season is won or lost. Adobe also reports AI-driven traffic to retail sites up 130% year over year, and that AI-assisted shoppers feel more confident and are less likely to return items. If that holds, the quality of product data, content, and structured information on your site affects not only whether an AI tool recommends you, but also how many orders come back.
Those are site operations and digital product problems, and they tend to fall between teams. Peak-season uptime, page speed, payment flows, and product content sit with different owners at many retailers, and nobody is accountable for the whole path. We covered the role that closes that gap in How to Hire a Site Operations Manager, and the broader AI ownership question in Hiring a Head of AI Transformation in Retail. For many mid-sized retailers, the practical first step is a digital product or site management leader who owns mobile conversion and content quality end to end.
A $275 billion online season is also a very large parcel season. Essentials are heavy, bulky, and low margin per unit, which makes shipping cost and delivery speed more important to profitability than they are for a typical gift order. On the back end, returns from apparel and basics arrive in January and take margin with them. If AI-assisted shopping does reduce returns as Adobe's data suggests, that is a benefit worth protecting with good product information, and it still has to be managed by someone who owns the process.
Two roles matter most here: an omnichannel fulfillment manager who can balance ship-from-store, DC, and third-party capacity as order mix shifts, and a returns and reverse logistics manager who treats January as part of the holiday plan. Both sit in our Supply Chain and Operations practice, and both are hard to find in late Q4 once the market tightens.
With October starting tomorrow, most of the season's decisions are already in motion. The hiring question is what to fix before the peak and what to build for next year. For peak, a short list of contract or interim specialists in planning, site operations, and fulfillment can close the most expensive gaps quickly. For next year, treat this forecast as a prompt to review which of these roles are owned, which are shared informally, and which do not exist.
| Where the Season Is Won or Lost | The Role to Look At | Practice Area |
|---|---|---|
| In-stock rates on essentials and fast-moving categories | Merchandise Planner, Demand Planner | Merchandising & Buying |
| Promotion depth, October events, and margin | Director of Pricing and Promotions | Category Management |
| Mobile conversion, checkout, and content quality | Site Operations Manager, Digital Product Lead | DTC Site Management, Retail Digital Technology |
| Delivery speed and parcel cost on bulky orders | Omnichannel Fulfillment Manager | Supply Chain & Operations |
| Real-time read on demand and returns | Analytics Lead, Data Scientist | Analytics & Data Science |
The retailers that do best this season will not be the ones with the biggest forecast. They will be the ones who staffed for what shoppers are actually buying, and when.
Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion in U.S. online holiday spending from November 1 through December 31, 2026, up 6.7% year over year, according to Retail Dive. Cyber Week is projected at $47.5 billion (up 7.4%), with Cyber Monday topping $15 billion and Black Friday reaching $12.9 billion.
Adobe's data shows consumers using holiday sales events to stock up on everyday items as well as gifts. Compared with a September baseline, Cyber Week demand is projected to rise 210% for clothing basics, 150% for personal hygiene, 113% for baby products, 93% for pet products, and 49% for household cleaning. Grocery, toys, and cosmetics are each forecast to grow roughly 10% across the season.
October is now part of the holiday peak. Adobe projects $95.8 billion in October online spending, up 8%, including roughly $10 billion during Prime Big Deal Days. Retail Dive reports the event has reshaped the holiday season, which pushes retailers to plan promotions and inventory earlier and more carefully.
Adobe reports AI-driven traffic to retail sites is up 130% year over year. Among shoppers who used AI assistance, 77% said they felt more confident in their purchases and 69% said they were less likely to return items. Retailers need product data, content, and site experience that perform well in AI-assisted discovery, which requires dedicated ownership.
Retailers typically need a merchandise or demand planner, a pricing and promotions lead, a site operations or mobile experience manager, an omnichannel fulfillment manager, a returns and reverse logistics manager, and an analytics lead who can read demand in real time. Brands selling through marketplaces also need a marketplace manager who can manage promotional calendars and inventory across channels.